on Jul 22, 2025
by Gnosis
in Developers
As Vitalik Buterin has long observed, prediction markets are one of the most compelling use cases in the DeFi space for their ability to reshape how we gather, process, and act on information. Today, we are witnessing the next evolutionary leap: autonomous AI agents entering the arena as economically rational actors making trades, generating forecasts, and contributing intelligence to decentralized prediction systems. Powering much of this innovation quietly but reliably is the infrastructure Gnosis has spent nearly a decade perfecting.
The Foundation: Gnosis Prediction Market Infrastructure
Since its origins in 2015 as a prediction market platform, Gnosis has grown into the backbone of decentralized forecasting across Web3. Two foundational innovations have become industry standards:
Conditional Token Framework (CTF): Our open-source protocol for tokenizing prediction outcomes enables flexible, composable forecasting mechanisms. Platforms like Polymarket leverage CTF to handle complex combinations of outcomes, position splits, and payout logic.
Omen and Presagio – The Evolution of Decentralized Prediction Markets: Omen, initially developed by Gnosis and later managed by DXdao, is a fully decentralized, multi-chain prediction market platform built on the CTF. It showcases automated market makers (CPMM/LMSR), crowdsourced resolution via Kleros, and seamless integration with the Gnosis ecosystem. In 2024, Presagio emerged as "Omen 2.0," revitalizing the platform with a focus on AI-driven forecasting. Backed by a Gnosis DAO proposal (GIP-113), Presagio enhances Omen’s core logic by integrating GnosisAI agents. These agents enable advanced prediction strategies, positioning Presagio as a cutting-edge battlefield for AI-augmented markets.
This infrastructure has quietly powered billions in volume. From Polymarket’s explosion during the 2024 election cycle to emerging platforms exploring AI-driven forecasts, CTF remains the go-to tooling for any team serious about scalable, secure prediction markets.
Enter the AI Agents: A New Paradigm
The emergence of AI agents interacting with prediction markets marks an inflection point. They can:
Continuously monitor real-world signals
Analyze information across domains
Generate predictions and place trades autonomously
Respond to market incentives
Coordinate with other agents
And, critically, they do so without centralized oversight.
Infinite Games: Advancing AI Forecasting
One of the most exciting projects emerging from this new ecosystem is Infinite Games, which is building AI-powered forecasting networks on top of Gnosis infrastructure. Their approach illustrates our original vision of "info finance"; using financial incentives to distill high-quality information from distributed intelligence.
Key innovations include:
AI miners that generate and submit autonomous predictions
Validator networks scoring forecasts using peer-based metrics
Real-time updating of markets based on new information
Their use of large language models (LLMs) advances the field significantly. Research shows these AI predictors can now match or exceed human-level performance in forecasting, particularly in specialized domains (e.g., scientific outcomes or economics).
Technically, Infinite Games implements exponentially weighted scoring systems that reward recency, proper scoring rules that incentivize honesty, and time-series handling across iterative forecast submissions putting cutting-edge AI into decentralized, tokenized applications.
OLAS Predict: Autonomous Agent Economies
Another breakthrough project is OLAS Predict, which has created a full-fledged autonomous agent economy on Gnosis Chain. Here's a snapshot of how these modular agents work:
Market Creator agents deploy and seed new prediction markets
Trader agents analyze data and place bets
Mech agents offer market intelligence and real-time probabilities
Closer agents finalize and resolve markets
Over 361 daily active AI agents executing more than 8.2 million transactions on Gnosis Chain. Entire economic microcosms emerging with minimal human input.
Beyond Betting: Info Finance at Scale
As Vitalik Buterin noted, prediction markets can be seen as the epitome of "information finance", financially incentivizing the decentralized production of reliable insights.
AI agents are turbocharging this model by:
1. Scale & Efficiency:
AI can scan and participate in thousands of markets, 24/7, across chains.
2. Real-Time Information Processing:
LLMs quantify and synthesize emerging data, from social media to economic reports, making markets more reactive and precise.
3. Autonomous Market Creation:
AI can identify questions worth asking, deploy markets using our CTF contracts, and provide initial liquidity.
4. Cross-Domain Insight:
AI models traverse knowledge silos, uncovering patterns that humans might miss.
The Gnosis Advantage: Credible Neutrality at Scale
What underpins this AI-agent transformation is Gnosis’s commitment to credibly neutral, censorship-resistant infrastructure. Our technology stack offers:
Ultra-low gas fees ($0.0001 per 100K gas), enabling high-volume AI activity
Over 300,000 decentralized validators supporting uptime and neutrality
Full EVM compatibility connecting agents to the wider DeFi ecosystem
Our infrastructure handles the mathematical and financial complexity, freeing AI developers to focus on intelligence, strategy, and innovation.
Gnosis AI Agents: Open-Source and Developer-Ready
We’re developing the infrastructure and directly building open-source AI agents to accelerate this new design space. Our AI team has launched fully open-source prediction market agents that anyone can deploy, fork, or build on.
🔗 Explore the source code at: https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent
📣 Join the conversation and get support in our dedicated Discord in the #gnosis-ai channel
Whether you're a lone hacker or a large team building forecasting networks, these agents give you a head start in building autonomous systems on credibly neutral infrastructure.
The Info Finance Horizon: What Comes Next
The space is still young, but we’re starting to glimpse where this is heading:
Synthetic Event Generation: Agents that autonomously identify impactful questions & propose new markets
Cross-Market Arbitrage Agents: Bots that enforce pricing equilibrium across platforms
Live News Feeds → Price: Real-time analysis of breaking developments feeding into market odds
Composable Agent Networks: Specialized agents combining insights into meta-forecasters
Prediction markets were always about aligning incentives with truth-seeking; now AI is scaling that to a planetary level.
Build With Us: Your Ideas, Our Infrastructure
At Gnosis, we believe the best innovations emerge from open ecosystems. From the Conditional Token Framework to fully open-source AI agents, we are equipping the next wave of builders in information finance.
Presagio is live today and open to developers looking to launch custom markets. The Conditional Token Framework is composable and audit-tested. And the Gnosis developer ecosystem is full of collaborators pushing the frontier of prediction markets and autonomous intelligence.
Ready to build with us?
💬 Join our dev community → https://discord.gg/gnosis and visit the #gnosis-ai channel
🧠 Experiment with open-source AI agents → https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent and https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/tree/main
🌐 Launch your own market on Presagio → https://presagio.pages.dev/
The future of decentralized knowledge is autonomous, open-source, and prediction-powered. And it’s being built, block by block, on Gnosis.
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